Fire AggroTier 2
at DTR Win-A-Case
decks
5
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
10-19-2
overall winrate
35.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
42.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1266
· median 1219
· range 1110–1563
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1104
Q1 1208
Q3 1426
1750
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suited | 8.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
